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Analysis of US sanctions on Pakistan results threats for South Asia
Credit: AAMIR QURESHI/AFP/Getty Images

The United States has imposed sanctions on four entities in Pakistan involved in the development of the country’s ballistic missiles. US Principal Deputy National Security Advisor Jonathan Finer announced on December 19, 2024, that Pakistan is developing long-range ballistic missile capabilities “to strike targets well beyond South Asia, including in the United States.” Pakistan fiercely resisted the sanctions, calling them unfortunate and unbiased. 

It also claimed that its strategic capabilities were intended to “preserve peace and stability in South Asia.” Following the sanctions, many actions have been taken in the past few weeks. It includes further diplomatic criticism, India and Pakistan exchanging a list of their nuclear assets, the United States lifting restrictions on India’s nuclear energy entities, and sanctions imposed by China on the United States.

Are Pakistani missiles dangerous for the US?

The United States is expanding its collaboration and tightening its constraints on India while also enforcing sanctions against Pakistan. Concerns about the missile and sanctions on Pakistani organizations point to a possible danger to the US. Given that it originates from South Asia, where skills are typically driven by regional dynamics, the scenario becomes especially difficult. The development of Pakistani missiles and their capacity to strike the US suggests a growing nuclear danger. Although defense alliances between the United States and India and Pakistan and China have existed for a while. They are now growing more quickly in response to changing security threats. There is still much to learn about this evolution. The United States has been keeping an eye on this for a few years, but as more information becomes available, many questions remain.

The Trump administration must monitor possible dangers from the nuclear environment in the area and carefully manage its delicate relationship with Pakistan. Despite the Biden administration’s proposed confidence-building measures, US diplomatic attempts with Pakistan are at a standstill. Washington should stand back, analyze past South Asian confidence-building initiatives, and draw lessons from their successes and failures. It should consult India about the most effective methods to interact with Pakistan. In addition to fortifying relations with India, this would provide the US with a renewed approach with Pakistan.

Why is the US imposing a sanction on Pakistan?

The National Development Complex (NDC), which is in charge of creating Pakistan’s ballistic missiles, was one of four Pakistani organizations targeted by sanctions announced by the US Department of State in December 2024. Proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems are the focus of the executive order’s sanctions. These concerns arise from significantly large-diameter solid rocket motors, which give it the ability to target the United States, referring to Pakistan as a rising threat. The US sanctions against the four entities were harshly condemned by Pakistan.

Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are largely intended to safeguard its sovereignty and maintain peace in the South Asian area, according to the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Additionally, the statement asserts that US efforts “endanger regional and international peace and security in addition to undermining the credibility of non-proliferation regimes.”

Pakistan’s missile program has already been subject to sanctions from the United States. Several Chinese and one Belarusian enterprise that supplied missile-applicable materials to ‌ ballistic missile development were sanctioned by the Biden administration in the past year.

These organizations supplied the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) with equipment for Pakistan’s long-range missile program. 

RIAMB (Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machinery Industry), a Chinese corporation that purchases equipment to test huge rocket motors, such as the Shaheen-III and the Ababeel missile, is one example of this. Pakistan rejected the “political use of export controls” based on insufficient evidence from the United States and denounced the connections to Chinese economic companies. The Shaheen series missiles are mentioned in the most recent sanctions placed on the target of Pakistan. 

The longest-range missiles in Pakistan’s arsenal, these medium-range ballistic missiles can carry both conventional and nuclear payloads. Pakistan is attempting to offset India’s missile defense capacity by outfitting the Shaheen-III with multiple independent reentry vehicles, or MIRVs. The deployment of such long-range ballistic missiles that could threaten the United States is “several years to a decade away,” according to US officials.

Views of the Indian Ministry on these sanctions

India’s Ministry of External Affairs declared that it will closely monitor any developments regarding Pakistan’s ballistic missile program that “have a bearing on our security and interest” and “take action as appropriate” in response to the United States sanctions announcement. India and Pakistan exchanged the list of their nuclear assets under the Nonnuclear Aggression Pact, which forbids them from attacking their respective nuclear installations, a few weeks after the sanctions were declared. 

The two countries have a long history of border conflicts and deep-seated animosity. Pakistan has historically targeted India with its missile development.

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