Donald Trump’s potential return to the U.S. presidency in 2024 could significantly impact U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia, a region traditionally overlooked in American diplomatic strategies. As geopolitical dynamics evolve, Central Asia finds itself at a crossroads, with increasing competition from China, Russia, and regional powers like Turkey. Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign policy, focusing on economic pragmatism and countering China’s influence, could reshape the region’s alliances and economic landscape.

A Shift Toward Economic Engagement

During his first term, Trump made economic engagement a priority, often placing trade and business interests at the core of his foreign policy. This could continue with a second term, as Central Asia presents substantial opportunities for U.S. investments, particularly in sectors like energy, infrastructure, and telecommunications. By fostering business partnerships, Trump could align American companies with the economic development goals of Central Asian countries, which are keen to diversify their economies and reduce their dependency on traditional powers like Russia. Trump’s “America First” policy, which sought to ensure that U.S. interests are prioritized in trade agreements, could open the door to new economic initiatives in Central Asia. Given the region’s natural resources, such as oil, gas, and minerals, U.S. businesses could capitalize on these assets while creating mutually beneficial agreements that enhance economic cooperation​.

Counterbalancing China’s Influence

One of the most critical challenges for Central Asia under a Trump administration would be the growing influence of China. Over the past decade, Beijing has significantly expanded its presence in the region, primarily through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has solidified China’s role as a dominant economic player in Central Asia. This presents a delicate dilemma for the U.S. and its allies in the region, as they must balance relations with both Washington and Beijing. Trump, known for his hardline stance against China, could intensify efforts to counterbalance Beijing’s growing influence. Central Asian leaders might find themselves navigating a geopolitical tug-of-war between the U.S. and China, a challenge that could lead to strategic shifts in the region. U.S. policy under Trump could push Central Asian countries to reconsider their economic and security ties with China, opting for closer ties with Washington to avoid Chinese dominance​.

Navigating Regional Security Issues

Security concerns also play a crucial role in Central Asia’s strategic positioning. The region faces several challenges, including terrorism, drug trafficking, and instability stemming from neighboring conflicts in Afghanistan. Trump’s approach to security would likely focus on pragmatic solutions, offering security cooperation to Central Asian states to help them address these threats. His stance could lead to deeper military partnerships and intelligence-sharing agreements, strengthening U.S. influence in the region. At the same time, the rivalry between Russia and the U.S. in Central Asia could intensify with both powers competing for influence over local governments. Central Asian states, eager to assert their independence, may seek to diversify their alliances but will likely remain cautious about fully alienating Russia, a key regional player​.

A New Era for Central Asia?

If Trump returns to office, Central Asia could see a significant shift in its foreign relations. With an emphasis on economic deals, security cooperation, and countering Chinese expansion, Trump’s policies may open new doors for the region while creating tensions with traditional powers like Russia and China. Central Asian leaders, in turn, may find themselves navigating a complex geopolitical landscape, balancing relationships with multiple global powers to secure their sovereignty and economic growth.