As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the foreign policy strategies of candidates are coming into focus. Among them, former President Donald Trump’s stance on Iran is shaping up to be a defining issue. Trump’s policy toward Tehran during his first term was marked by a “maximum pressure” campaign, which sought to isolate Iran economically and politically. If elected again, Trump is poised to intensify this approach, tightening the screws on Tehran even further.

Trump’s Historical Approach to Iran: Maximum Pressure Campaign

During his first term, Trump took a hardline approach toward Iran, withdrawing the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal brokered by the Obama administration. He argued that the deal was too lenient and allowed Iran to continue pursuing a nuclear weapons program, all while using the economic relief it received to fund regional proxy groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. To counter this, Trump imposed sweeping sanctions, targeting Iran’s oil exports, banking system, and key sectors of its economy​.

Trump’s strategy, described as “maximum pressure,” crippled Iran’s economy, leading to a sharp drop in oil exports and an increasing financial strain on the government. By cutting off Iran from international trade and global financial markets, the U.S. hoped to force Tehran back to the negotiating table under more favorable terms. This approach, however, came with its own set of challenges, including growing tensions in the Middle East and strained relationships with U.S. allies who favored a diplomatic approach​.

The Potential for a Harder Stance in a Second Term

Should Trump secure a second term, his stance on Iran is expected to be even more aggressive. During his campaign, Trump has already indicated that he believes the Biden administration’s approach to Iran has been too soft, particularly on issues related to sanctions enforcement. Trump’s team, which includes hawkish figures like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, has consistently pushed for more stringent policies against Tehran. These figures are critical of the Biden administration’s failure to enforce sanctions, particularly regarding Iran’s oil exports to countries like China​. Trump has expressed that, had he been re-elected in 2020, Iran would have faced harsher economic conditions, further isolating it from the global economy and preventing it from funding its regional proxies. The goal of this strategy would be to push Iran into a new agreement that guarantees the halt of its nuclear ambitions while addressing its support for militant groups in the Middle East​.

Implications of a Harder Line on Iran

If Trump intensifies his approach, several key consequences could follow, both regionally and globally:

• Economic Pressure on Iran: Trump’s return to office would likely mean the reimposition of severe sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports and financial institutions. These measures would exacerbate the economic crisis already facing Tehran, possibly leading to greater domestic unrest as the Iranian populace bears the brunt of the economic burden. Iran’s oil industry, which has seen some recovery under the Biden administration, could once again face crippling restrictions​.
• Regional Stability and proxy conflicts: Trump’s policies could escalate tensions across the Middle East. Iran’s involvement in proxy wars, particularly in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, could become a focal point of U.S. actions. A hardline stance might lead to more military engagements or confrontations with Iranian-backed forces. Additionally, with Iran’s regional influence undeterred by sanctions, the U.S. may increase its military presence or provide additional support to regional allies like Saudi Arabia and Israel​.
• Nuclear Program Concerns: The issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions would remain central to Trump’s policy. The former president has repeatedly criticized the 2015 nuclear deal as a failure, claiming it did not prevent Iran from progressing toward nuclear capabilities. In a second term, Trump would likely push for a new deal, one that would involve even stricter terms regarding Iran’s nuclear program, alongside continued economic isolation​.

Global Reactions and Long-Term Consequences

A second Trump administration’s policy toward Iran would have significant repercussions not only for the U.S. and Iran but also for the broader international community. The aggressive stance could deepen divides between the U.S. and its allies, particularly European nations that continue to support the JCPOA and prefer a more diplomatic approach to Iran. Trump’s policies might also embolden other global powers like Russia and China, who have been increasingly involved in the Middle East and have taken a more favorable stance toward Iran​. Furthermore, the tightening of sanctions and military pressures could lead to an unpredictable escalation. Iran, facing increasing isolation and potential military conflict, may intensify its support for proxy groups or seek more direct confrontation with U.S. forces in the region. This could fuel instability not only in the Middle East but across the globe, especially in energy markets where Iran’s oil exports play a key role.

The Path Ahead for US-Iran Relations

As Trump looks toward a possible second term, the prospect of tightening the screws on Tehran remains one of the central elements of his foreign policy. By continuing his “maximum pressure” approach, Trump seeks to bring Iran back to the negotiating table under terms more favorable to U.S. interests. However, this policy risks further destabilizing the Middle East, straining relations with global allies, and potentially leading to heightened military conflicts. The 2024 election will be pivotal in determining the future of U.S.-Iran relations, with significant implications for both regional and global security.