As global power dynamics shift, terrorist groups are increasingly viewing the potential weakening of U.S. hegemony under a second term of Donald Trump as an opportunity to expand their influence. Trump’s foreign policy, characterized by “America First” and a retreat from international commitments, has created an environment that some groups find advantageous. This article explores how these shifts in U.S. policy might empower terrorist organizations and influence global security.

A Pivot Away from Global Leadership

Under the leadership of Donald Trump, U.S. foreign policy has moved away from traditional internationalism and multilateralism. His “America First” doctrine prioritized domestic concerns, reduced U.S. involvement in global conflicts, and questioned long-standing alliances. Trump’s withdrawal from international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran Nuclear Deal, as well as his criticism of NATO, signaled a shift toward unilateralism and isolationism​. This retreat from global engagement has, in turn, created a power vacuum in certain regions, weakening US influence and emboldening adversaries. For terrorist organizations, this shift presents a unique opportunity to expand their reach and further destabilize regions where U.S. presence was once a stabilizing force.

Terrorist Groups Exploit the Power Vacuum

The weakening of U.S. influence in critical regions, especially the Middle East and North Africa, has provided terrorist groups like ISIS, al-Qaeda, and the Taliban with a chance to regroup and reassert their power. These groups often thrive in areas where state control is minimal, and the absence of a dominant U.S. military presence has allowed them to strengthen their operations.

• ISIS and al-Qaeda: Both groups have used the chaos left by U.S. withdrawal from key regions to rebuild their networks. With the U.S. refocusing its efforts on domestic issues, such as combating terrorism at home and reducing military presence abroad, ISIS has attempted to regain territory and influence in places like Syria and Iraq. Similarly, al-Qaeda’s regional affiliates in Africa and the Middle East have capitalized on the withdrawal of U.S. troops to increase their activities​.
• Taliban Resurgence: One of the most significant impacts of Trump’s foreign policy was the 2020 agreement with the Taliban, which paved the way for the U.S. military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan. The resulting power vacuum allowed the Taliban to reclaim control of the country, undermining U.S. objectives and creating a destabilized environment ripe for terrorist activity. The rapid collapse of the Afghan government and the Taliban’s return to power showcased the vulnerabilities of U.S. strategy in the region​.

Terrorist Groups Take Advantage of Reduced U.S. Presence

The decision to withdraw US forces from areas like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria has diminished the U.S.’s ability to project power and influence. For terrorist groups operating in these regions, the reduced military presence represents a strategic opportunity.

• Afghanistan: The rapid U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, after two decades of military involvement, left a security vacuum that terrorist organizations such as ISIS-K and the Taliban have exploited. With the U.S. disengaged, these groups have more freedom to operate, recruit, and plan attacks without the same level of oversight or military pressure​.
• Syria and Iraq: The U.S. has also reduced its military presence in Syria, allowing ISIS remnants to regroup and mount attacks. Although U.S. forces continue to maintain a presence in certain regions, the lack of consistent leadership and coordination has allowed terror groups to rebuild and expand their operations​.

Rising Terrorism and Instability

The strategic shift under Trump, alongside the reduced U.S. military footprint, has contributed to rising instability in regions where terrorist groups operate. As these organizations grow in power, the global impact is felt through increased terrorism, regional conflicts, and the proliferation of extremist ideologies.

• Terrorist Attacks Worldwide: With the absence of a dominant U.S. military presence, terrorist groups have found it easier to execute high-profile attacks across the globe. Increased coordination between regional affiliates of groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda has led to more frequent and deadly terrorist incidents. The ability of these groups to operate with relative impunity in regions with little state oversight poses a growing threat to international security​.
• International Terrorism Financing: Weakened U.S. oversight also provides greater freedom for terrorist organizations to finance their activities. With less scrutiny on global financial systems, some groups have been able to use illicit means such as extortion, smuggling, and cybercrime to fund their operations. This makes it more difficult for international bodies to stem the flow of resources to these groups​.
  

Potential Future Trends: How Trump’s Policies Could Shape Global Security

Looking ahead, the continuation of Trump’s foreign policy priorities could further empower terrorist groups if the U.S. continues to scale back its military engagements abroad. If a second Trump administration were to focus on continued withdrawal from foreign conflicts and prioritize a domestic-first security agenda, it could lead to further opportunities for terrorism to flourish in key regions. Moreover, a more isolationist U.S. policy could encourage other global powers, like Russia and China, to expand their influence in regions traditionally under U.S. sway, shifting the  geopolitical landscape and leaving fewer resources available for counterterrorism operations​.

The Dangerous Implications of Weakened U.S. Hegemony

Terrorist groups are actively seizing the opportunity presented by a weakened US presence in global affairs. Under Trump’s foreign policy framework, the reduction of military interventions, the withdrawal from key regions, and the prioritization of domestic issues over international security have created an environment in which these groups can regain strength and expand their influence. The long-term implications of these shifts may lead to increased terrorism and global instability, challenging the ability of the U.S. and its allies to maintain peace and security worldwide. To address these threats, the U.S. may need to reconsider its foreign policy priorities and adopt a more proactive approach to counterterrorism.