Afghanistan has been a source of danger due to growing threats of terrorism. It also affects nearby nations in Central Eurasia. In August 2021, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. Many people have noticed that ‌security in the region has gotten better. But there are many concerns about future threats. Because many international terrorist groups still reside in the country. This uncertainty adds to the risks. 

The important location of Afghanistan makes it an ideal place for conflicts between different nations. It includes Russia, China, and the United States. 

The situation could change in different ways, affecting terrorist risks for countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). One possibility, in a positive way, is that different SCO countries now understand the importance of the need to work with the Taliban. The main purpose of this cooperation is to prevent Afghanistan from being alone with the reality that the Taliban will be a permanent part of the nation. 

When talking about Afghanistan, officials are not discussing the Afghan government. The major internal matter of ‌Afghan society is ‌human rights, particularly women’s rights. 

However, Afghanistan has signed the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. This promise is often not considered due to complexities with the United Nations affecting different nations. 

Western nations suggested that different groups should be included in the government. And for the last 3 years, the Taliban has been the major political group. There are few alternatives with no foreign ties. The US and its supporting countries seem to utilize ‌recognition issues for their interests. At the same time, China is ready to start to work with the Taliban diplomatically. 

Security and unclear investment in the environment 

The Taliban’s status is not the main hurdle in ‌cooperation, but the main culprits are security issues and unclear investment in the environment. This is why trade continues, but there is still a lack of necessary investments and infrastructure development in Afghanistan.

The security complexity is not only an internal issue in Afghanistan, but it impacts the whole region. However, the Afghan government has been successful many times in solving different issues. It includes corruption, drug production, and terrorism. They were also successful in creating a positive atmosphere for cross-border cooperation with nations like Iran, Uzbekistan, China, and Russia. This closeness assists in maintaining Afghanistan’s economy in a good way. 

Many transport and energy projects have started in Afghanistan due to the stronger control of the Taliban. Some of them are the Trans-Afghan Railway and TAPI pipeline, which were impossible during previous conflicts. Despite virtual anti-Taliban groups, they have also reduced crime, leading to a more peaceful society. 

Cooperation between intelligence agencies from Iran, Russia, and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan’s intelligence has been effective in preventing terrorist attacks. The Taliban see groups like ISIS as foreign threats, promoting collaboration against terrorism, which is vital for Afghanistan’s stability and development.

In August 2021, when the Taliban were again occupying Afghanistan, many radical groups were happy. They thought that it was the victory of Muslims. However, within a few days, the excitement had ended. The Taliban got criticism from Hizb ut-Tahrir for not assisting in struggles outside Afghanistan, saying they were losing their direction. This points out that if the Taliban works with nearby countries, it could lessen their appeal to radicals.

The stability of the country will continue if no outside force creates problems in Afghanistan. At this time, terrorism is not a big threat, mostly carrying out occasional attacks.

Furthermore, ‌instability in the region increased due to the collaboration of outsider nations and anti-Taliban groups. This closeness also hurts the region’s economic situation. In this way, the Taliban get divided. Because many members join ‌extremist groups. Such a situation forced the Taliban to ‌start terrorist attacks. It can also stop ‌progress and make Afghanistan again the battleground for terrorism. It could also lead to more instability in the region.

There are still chances of possible conflicts due to recent events in Afghanistan. The US passed a bill in July 2024, calling the Taliban a terrorist group. Furthermore, a former security adviser suggested assisting all groups that stand against them. This could lead to problems, the same as in the 1990s, and increase violence. 

The US has the resources to support this effort, and it’s not as expensive as other wars. With uncertain outcomes, countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Commonwealth of Independent States may need to change their plans. Working more closely with the Taliban could be a smart way to handle the situation.