Bashar al-Assad’s 24 years in power came to an abrupt end on December 8 when opposition forces captured the capital and drove the president from office in a dramatic assault by Syrian rebels. After Assad put down pro-democracy demonstrations, a 13-year civil war broke out, leading to the downfall. Over half a million people were slain, millions more were displaced, and international powers and their proxies were involved in the battle. With the end of the Assad family’s 50-year dominance, the world is now watching to see how Syria’s political landscape develops. Russia and Iran, who supported Assad, and the United States and Turkey, who supported various opposition groups and militias, are among those with a stake in the fight and the nation’s destiny.

The Syrian opposition’s shift

Turkey has provided arms, military support, and political backing to rebel groups fighting in Syria’s civil war, the majority of which are currently allied with the Syrian National Army (SNA). The main focus of Syria’s northern neighbor has been on employing rebels to control the Kurdish YPG militia, which Turkey claims is a branch of the PKK, a Kurdish rebel organization that is illegal in its own country. Additionally, Turkey wants the approximately three million Syrian refugees who now reside there to go back to their homeland. Within the Kurdish-led and US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition, which holds sway over a large portion of the northeastern region of the nation, the YPG is the largest militia. During the fight, the SDF mostly stayed out of contact with Assad’s forces. However, near Syria’s northern border, Turkish troops and rebel allies took over areas from the SDF and YPG. Turkey has been politically active as well. In order to stop the government’s attempt to reclaim Idlib, the insurgents’ bastion in the northwest, Turkey and Russia mediated a truce in 2020. The Islamist militant organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the rebels who ultimately toppled Assad, controlled Idlib.

The change in rhetoric

Many people think that without Turkey’s approval, the offensive would not have been possible. Turkey denies supporting HTS. Meanwhile, fighting is still going on in northern Syria: The SNA launched a separate attack on SDF-held territories concurrently with the HTS offensive. Before the civil conflict, Russia possessed military bases in Syria and had a long-standing alliance with the Assad regime. Russian President Vladimir Putin challenged Western control and authority in the area by using his nation’s involvement in Syria and backing for Assad. Russia dispatched hundreds of soldiers and started an air campaign in 2015 to back the Assad government. In exchange, Russia was granted 49-year leases on a naval facility and an air base, which served as vital hubs for the movement of military contractors into and out of Africa in the eastern Mediterranean.

Past actions vs. present claims

Previously concentrating its efforts on countries that were formerly part of the Soviet bloc, this was a significant step in Russia’s quest to establish itself as a worldwide power. However, Assad’s ally was engaged in fighting a war in Ukraine since 2022, which helped the Syrian military quickly lose to opposition groups in late November and early December. After escaping Damascus, Assad and his family were given sanctuary in Moscow, according to Russian media. Former US President Barack Obama supported the opposition against Assad’s government after Syria’s pro-democracy demonstrations in 2011 were violently put down. In 2014, the United States entered militarily to fight the Islamic State (IS) group and gave military backing to what it viewed as moderate rebel forces. To assist the Kurdish-led SDF alliance in regaining areas previously controlled by IS in the northeast, a US-led international coalition used airstrikes and special operations. The US government claimed to have carried out dozens of airstrikes against IS camps and operatives in central Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime to prevent IS from exploiting the precarious situation.

Western concerns

Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, Iran and Syria have been allies. During the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, Syria supported Iran. Iran is thought to have sent hundreds of troops and spent billions of dollars to support Assad during the Syrian civil war. Alongside the Syrian army have been thousands of Shia Muslim combatants who have been armed, trained, and funded by Iran. These soldiers are primarily from the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, but they have also come from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen. In the final moments of the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel took the Golan from Syria, and in 1981, it annexed it unilaterally. Even though the US took this unilateral action in 2019, it was not recognized globally. Throughout the conflict, Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes against targets in Syria that are connected to Iran, though it has hardly ever acknowledged these attacks. Israel has launched hundreds of strikes throughout Syria since insurgents ousted Assad. Syria’s naval fleet, military installations, and weapons manufacturing facilities have all been targeted.