Due to antiquated policies that failed to foresee new obstacles in human recovery, the United States has repeatedly shown itself inadequate for personnel recovery throughout its history. Trend studies show that following a significant crisis or catastrophe, the US modifies its personnel rehabilitation policy. China is gaining the upper hand in cislunar space if the US administration doesn’t stop its reactionary personnel recovery strategy and investment cycle. The United States can only maintain its leadership in space if it adopts a proactive national strategy.

Technological advancement

The US has to start investing now to reduce danger to astronauts and allow commercial enterprises to utilize resources outside our atmosphere. China has started investing in its own in-space rescue program, is hesitant to take on risk in its human spaceflight program, and is moving at an astonishing pace to realize its vision of the future in space. Additionally, the Chinese government is working hard to spearhead global in-orbit rescue missions. China’s program calls into question America’s long-standing position as a leader. Additionally, it exposes American astronauts to the possibility of being detained or recovered by China. The prospect for cislunar rescue is a real and present concern, as the launch of the Artemis 1 mission shows that the United States can once again send people to lunar orbit and beyond. As it gets ready for the first crewed surface trip since Apollo 17 in 1972, NASA is spearheading the Artemis effort. The first real-world justification for an in-space rescue capability is presented by the anticipated expansion of crewed missions across cislunar space. The People’s Republic of China is getting ready to take the lead in the race to save humanity from space because it is acutely aware of this worldwide divide. China’s crewed aspirations on the Moon, Mars, and beyond have gained legitimacy as a result of its ability to accomplish ambitious space goals.

Competitive edge

The Outer Space Treaty (OST) and Astronaut Rescue Agreements are signed by the US, China, Russia, and other Artemis partners, but there are geopolitical ramifications if one is unable to rescue one’s own astronauts or must possibly depend on an enemy country to save US astronauts. The ongoing disputes between China and the United States over multi-domain policies are headed toward a “Grey Rhino” moment. Most people have heard of “Black Swan” events, which are significant occurrences that are very hard to forecast. It is also quite likely that the Grey Rhino event will occur, even though there have been many unheeded warnings about it. In order to lessen the effects of high-impact space events, the United States realized that it was urgent to address demands for capabilities development and space policy. America’s goal on retaining leadership and domination in space is shown in the reestablishment of the Artemis Accords, the Space Force, the United States Space Command, and the National Space Council.

Geopolitical ramifications

US personnel rescue (PR) policy is often reactive, changing only in response to noteworthy incidents that unsettle national authorities. Trend research indicates that because there hasn’t been a major incident in recent memory, the US administration hasn’t yet made space isolation a top national priority. The Joint Personnel Recovery Agency’s retired Colonel Lee Pera explains the strategic significance of significant public relations incidents that prompted essential but reactionary policy adjustments. “Prisoners fell victim to brainwashing and were utilized by the enemy as propaganda tools or for political exploitation” during the Korean War. The most significant public relations campaign in history is Operation Eagle Claw. A unique joint task team was put together in 1980 to rescue American hostages held in Iran. The mission ultimately resulted in the Goldwater Nichols Act, although it was a complete failure. A military reorganization led by Congress resulted in the establishment of the United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).

Space governance and regulation

Because Grey Rhino occurrences are predictable, they can be avoided. Black Swan event models highlight the independent variables that historically lead to reactive policies, which helps prepare for future operational situations. Since humans are not often present in the space domain, the only sources of data are national interests, game theory, and the imagination. Decision trees are derived from past battles on Earth. Dramatic expansions of national authority into space provide inspiration for media and literature. Space interactions are frequently directly impacted by national decisions made on Earth, and vice versa. 

Conclusion

In conclusion, The following hypothetical situations are thought-provoking and ought to alert our leaders to factors that can trigger reactive changes in PR policy. The following numbers and scenarios offer provocative ideas for foreseeable planning faults that are not covered by existing US policy. These scenarios, according to military strategists, would investigate deficiencies in personnel, policy, and technology that can cause casualties and unfavorable national strategic outcomes.