Washington Institute For Defence & SecurityWashington Institute For Defence & SecurityWashington Institute For Defence & Security
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Analyzing Assad's sudden fall Syria at a turning point
Credit: Getty Images

The landscape and power balance in the Middle East and abroad have shifted remarkably quickly since the fall of the Assad regime less than two weeks after a concerted attack by a wide range of opposition groups. Millions of Syrians were slain, tortured, dispossessed, and sent into exile by a cruel tyranny, but their long-suffering is now over. Hezbollah’s privileged status in Syria has also been terminated, along with the Iranian hegemonic agenda. It is evident today that Syria will be governed by an opposition coalition with the backing of a majority, even though the future of Russian bases, the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in northeast Syria, interim governance, counterterrorism efforts, and Syria’s new role in the region may not be decided for months.

The ripple effect on Syria

At this early stage, a number of analytical toplines are noteworthy. First, the international community, particularly those advocating for normalization and reconciliation, underestimated how unstable Assad’s hold on power was. Second, the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have caused Iran and Russia to drastically lose their influence in Syria and the region, making it difficult for them to save Assad in 2024 as they were in 2014–15. Third, Turkey is the only nation that appears to have had a successful approach to Syria: fighting the People’s Defense Units (YPG), a branch of the anti-Turkey terrorist organization Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), in northern Syria; hosting refugees; opposing Assad while negotiating with his supporters; and providing political and military support to the opposition. Now, Ankara has unparalleled military, diplomatic, and economic clout over the stabilization and reconstruction effort, as well as the support of a vast majority of Syrians. 

The power vacuum and its challenges

Fourth, the US’s ten-year strategy in Syria has failed: it has tolerated Assad and his Iranian backers, has placed an excessive amount of emphasis on the Islamic State, has given the YPG/PKK unrestricted support, and has provided humanitarian aid while cutting off political and military backing for the opposition. Jerusalem and Washington will need to devise a logical and beneficial strategy for the new Damascus administration. In addition to being a major contributor to Iran’s regional influence and destabilization, the Assad dictatorship, which has dominated Syria since 1971, was incredibly repressive and responsible for numerous violations of human rights. For Syria, the surrounding area, and the global community, its collapse offers both chances and problems. Political reform, democratization, and the reconstruction of a war-torn country may be made possible by the overthrow of the Assad dictatorship. An inclusive government that reflects Syria’s ethnically and religiously diverse populace, promotes economic development, and permits the return of refugees and internally displaced people is possible now that Assad has been overthrown without opposition. 

Regional reactions to the shift

To facilitate the transition to such a government and guarantee that all parties involved—opposition organizations, civic society, and minority communities—have a say in determining Syria’s future, the Biden administration ought to collaborate with foreign allies. In addition, the Biden administration ought to give humanitarian aid and immediate stabilization top priority to restore infrastructure, offer medical care, and encourage the swift repatriation of refugees and internally displaced people. Another crucial step to support is the restart of the UN-led humanitarian response throughout Syria, which is based in Damascus, in order to stop the situation from degenerating into chaos. Although dealing with Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist group labeled by the US and the UN, will be difficult, the designation gives the US and its allies significant power. Through negotiations with Turkey, the Trump administration may utilize that influence to make sure HTS behaves appropriately in the Syrian scene and confirms that it no longer poses a threat to regional or American security. Working via international organizations, the incoming US administration should prioritize promoting economic recovery and halting the resurgence of extremist organizations.

Economic and social impacts

The fall of Assad upends the power of Hezbollah and Iran, who have greatly aided and abetted the Assad government. Additionally, it will lessen the likelihood of regional spillover conflicts by lowering sectarian tensions that are fed by the regime’s survival. In response to Iran’s malicious actions, the US should take advantage of this chance to organize a more robust regional strategy. Furthermore, if left unchecked, Syria’s power vacuum might fuel regional instability and turn the country into a battleground for regional hegemony, which could fuel further unrest and give extremist organizations more clout. The United States must engage in significant diplomatic relations with the area if it is to foster peace and collaboration among its neighbors in a stable, post-Assad Syria. To guarantee a coordinated approach to Syria’s stabilization, the US should negotiate responses with important regional players, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and Jordan, and pursue multilateral diplomacy with Qatar and Turkey. In addition to lowering tensions, promoting communication between hostile governments may promote cooperative security arrangements.

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